RT info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
T1 Modelling the spatial variation of vital rates: An evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of correlative species distribution models
A1 Suárez Seoane, Susana
A1 Álvarez Martínez, José Manuel
A1 Wintle, Brendan A.
A1 Palacín, Carlos
A1 Alonso, Juan Carlos
A2 Ecologia
K1 Ecología. Medio ambiente
K1 Breeding success
K1 Great Bustard
K1 Otis tarda
K1 Population persistence
K1 Species distribution modelling
AB Aim: Species distribution models based on breeding occurrence data allow for identifyingboth environmental drivers and geographic areas potentially relevant for breeding.However, the interpretation of model predictions in terms of reproductiveperformance should be further investigated, as this information is crucial for conservationplanning. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of a correlative modellingapproach based on breeding occurrence data (presence–absence) against another approachbased on vital rates’ data (breeding success) for gaining insights on speciespersistence in the case of Great Bustards (Otis tarda).Location: Spain.Methods: Breeding occurrence and breeding success were independently modelled usinggeneralized linear models and multimodel inference analyses. Sensitivities to the way inwhich the population parameter (breeding success) was defined were explored by buildingfive versions of the dependent variable. We evaluated differences in model performanceand identified areas of congruence for breeding occurrence and breeding success.Results: The agreement between the spatial predictions achieved by breeding occurrenceand breeding success models differed substantially across databases, with thelargest differences in occupied breeding areas. The deviance explained by the breedingoccurrence model was 64.98% and ranged from 7.83% to 62.27% for the breedingsuccess models. Model performance was higher for models calibrated within potentialthan within occupied breeding areas.Main conclusions: The combination of data on both breeding occurrence and breedingsuccess into a species distribution modelling framework showed the limitations ofbreeding occurrence models for inferring reproductive parameters. The definition ofthe population parameter as dependent variable was a key factor that strongly affectedthe inference of vital rates’ models. The approach allowed for discriminating betweenareas and landscape attributes necessary for the long-termspecies persistence fromothers that may be relevant, but not so much for reproductive performance.
PB John Wiley & Sons
YR 2019
FD 2019-04-24
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10612/10635
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10612/10635
NO Diversity and Distribution, 2017, vol. 23, n. 8
NO P. 841-853
DS BULERIA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de León
RD 21-ene-2021