RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Estimation of COVID-19 Dynamics in the Different States of the United States during the First Months of the Pandemic
A1 Rojas Valenzuela, Ignacio
A1 Valenzuela, Olga
A1 Delgado Márquez, Elvira
A1 Rojas, Fernando
A2 Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa
K1 Economía
K1 Estadística
K1 Covid-19
K1 Pandemic in the united states
K1 Time series
K1 DTW distance
K1 Hierarchical clustering
K1 SIR model
AB [En] Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics and its evolution is a multidisciplinary effort, whichrequires the unification of heterogeneous disciplines (scientific, mathematics, epidemiological,biological/bio-chemical, virologists and health disciplines to mention the most relevant) to worktogether towards a better understanding of this pandemic. Time series analysis is of great importanceto determine both the similarity in the behavior of COVID-19 in certain countries/states and theestablishment of models that can analyze and predict the transmission process of this infectiousdisease. In this contribution, an analysis of the different states of the United States will be carried outto measure the similarity of COVID-19 time series, using dynamic time warping distance (DTW) as adistance metric. A parametric methodology is proposed to jointly analyze infected and deceasedpersons. This metric allows comparison of time series that have a different time length, making itvery appropriate for studying the United States, since the virus did not spread simultaneously inall the states/provinces. After a measure of the similarity between the time series of the states ofUnited States was determined, a hierarchical cluster was created, which makes it possible to analyzethe behavioral relationships of the pandemic between different states and to discover interestingpatterns and correlations in the underlying data of COVID-19 in the United States. With the proposedmethodology, nine different clusters were obtained, showing a different behavior in the eastern zoneand western zone of the United States. Finally, to make a prediction of the evolution of COVID-19 inthe states, Logistic, Gompertz and SIR models were computed. With these mathematical models, it ispossible to have a more precise knowledge of the evolution and forecast of the pandemic.
PB MDPI
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10612/20015
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10612/20015
NO Rojas-Valenzuela, I., Valenzuela, O., Delgado-Marquez, E., & Rojas, F. (2021). Estimation of COVID-19 Dynamics in the Different States of the United States during the First Months of the Pandemic. Engineering Proceedings , 5(1), 53. https://doi.org/10.3390/ENGPROC2021005053.
DS BULERIA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de León
RD Jul 7, 2024