RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Evaluating Lightning-Caused Fire Occurrence Using Spatial Generalized Additive Models: A Case Study in Central Spain
A1 Rodríguez Pérez, José Ramón
A1 Ordóñez, Celestino
A1 Roca Pardiñas, Javier
A1 Vecín Arías, Daniel
A1 Castedo Dorado, Fernando
A2 Produccion Vegetal
K1 Ecología. Medio ambiente
K1 Ingeniería forestal
K1 Lightning-caused fires
K1 Lightning fire occurrence
K1 Spatial effect
K1 Spatial generalized additive models
AB [EN] It is widely accepted that the relationship between lightning wildfire occurrence and its influencing factors vary depending on the spatial scale of analysis, making the development of models at the regional scale advisable. In this study, we analyze the effects of different biophysical variables and lightning characteristics on lightning-caused forest wildfires in Castilla y Le´on region (Central Spain). The presence/absence of at least one lightningcaused fire in any 4 × 4-km grid cell was used as a dependent variable and vegetation type and structure, terrain, climate, and lightning characteristics were used as possible covariates. Five prediction methods were compared: a generalized linear model (GLM), a random forest model (RFM), a generalized additive model (GAM), a GAM that includes a spatial trend function (GAMs) and a spatial autoregressive model (AUREG). A GAMs with just one covariate, apart from longitude and latitude for each observation included as a combined effect, was considered the most appropriate model in terms of both predictive ability and simplicity.According to our results, the probability of a forest being affected by a lightning-caused fire is positively and nonlinearly associated with the percentage of coniferous woodlands in the landscape, suggesting that occurrence is more closely associated with vegetation type than with topography, climate, or lightning characteristics. The selected GAMs is intended to inform the Regional Government of Castilla y Le´on (the fire and fuel agency in the region) regarding identification of areas at greatest risk so it can design long-term forest fuel and fire management strategies
PB Wiley
SN 0272-4332
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10612/17875
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10612/17875
NO Rodríguez-Pérez, J. R., Ordóñez, C., Roca-Pardiñas, J., Vecín-Arias, D., & Castedo-Dorado, F. (2020). Evaluating lightning‐caused fire occurrence using spatial generalized additive models: A case study in central Spain. Risk Analysis, 40(5), 1011-1026. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13488
DS BULERIA. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de León
RD 03-jun-2024